{"id":174,"date":"2009-09-07T14:01:16","date_gmt":"2009-09-07T21:01:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alhamour.com\/?p=174"},"modified":"2009-09-08T01:22:18","modified_gmt":"2009-09-08T08:22:18","slug":"religion-is-about-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.alhamour.com\/?p=174","title":{"rendered":"Religion is about Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Before I begin, I would like to make it clear that I am not trying to be controversial by discussing a sensitive subject such as religion. I want to share with you my findings in my quest to understand risk and more importantly, how to manage it effectively.<\/p>\n

It was 1:57 am. I was desperately trying to find a means to put my thoughts to rest. After all, it was late and I needed to either sleep or be productive. I chose to immerse myself in my search and found it to be ironic that religion found it’s way into the equation.<\/p>\n

It all started on June 19, 1623 in one of France’s oldest cities Clermont-Ferrand, when baby Blaise Pascal was brought into this world. Pascal was a child prodigy and is a celebrated mathematician, physicist, and religious philosopher. [1] He was also the first to develop the idea probability and more importantly Pascal’s Gambit, which is the area of this topic’s focus.<\/p>\n

Peter Bernstein describes Pascal’s Gambit very eloquently by saying:<\/p>\n

Pascal spent half his time leading an unsavory life and half\u00c2\u00a0the time being very ascetic. In the end, he came to the conclusion that he\u00c2\u00a0must give up the sinful life and retire to a monastery. While in the monastery,\u00c2\u00a0he asked himself the following question: \u00e2\u20ac\u02dc\u00e2\u20ac\u02dcGod is, or God is not?\u00e2\u20ac\u2122\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 He said that\u00c2\u00a0reason cannot answer this question\u00e2\u20ac\u201dan important statement to come from a\u00c2\u00a0mathematician. He said belief in God is not a decision. I cannot wake up one\u00c2\u00a0day and say, \u00e2\u20ac\u02dc\u00e2\u20ac\u02dcToday I will believe in God,\u00e2\u20ac\u2122\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 or \u00e2\u20ac\u02dc\u00e2\u20ac\u02dcToday I will not believe in God.\u00e2\u20ac\u2122\u00e2\u20ac\u2122\u00c2\u00a0It does not work like that. The answer to Pascal\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s question comes from within,\u00c2\u00a0but you can decide how you will live your life. You can act as though there is\u00c2\u00a0a God, or you can act as though there is not a God. This is your choice. If you\u00c2\u00a0act as though there is a God, you lead a life of virtue. If you die and you find\u00c2\u00a0out that there is no God, well, you gave up a few things but you lived a good\u00c2\u00a0life. Look at it from the other point of view. Suppose you act as though there is\u00c2\u00a0not a God and lead a life of sin and lust, and then you die and discover there\u00c2\u00a0is a God; you are in big trouble. Thus, Pascal argued that the better bet, the\u00c2\u00a0better wager, is to behave as though there is a God. So, in many instances, the\u00c2\u00a0consequences of decisions must outweigh the probabilities. Even outcomes with small probabilities may have big consequences. [2]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

What does this all mean in trying to understand risk?<\/strong><\/p>\n